Is Travis Kelce Really Slowing Down? Rob Gronkowski Weighs In

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has had quite the year. He lifted a second Lombardi Trophy in February and, more recently, has been pushed into the celebrity stratosphere thanks to his connection with Taylor Swift. That increased pop-cultural presence has made just about everything No. 87 touches turn to gold.

With that being said, though, the current Chiefs campaign has been somewhat of a mixed bag. The club's offense has undeniably taken a step backward, and while Kelce isn't the main concern, some have wondered if he's lost a step. The tight end didn't help matters by admitting that he feels the aches and pains of more than 150 NFL games over the years and thinks about retirement.

But if you listen to Rob Gronkowski, another all-time great at the position, Kelce isn't slowing down. Instead, he's simply the victim of circumstance.

Is Gronk onto something? Let's break things down.

Gronkowski Doesn't See Kelce Slowing Down

Being a professional athlete automatically places you in the spotlight. Being one of the top players on the defending champions, however, ups the ante even more (and that's without the Taylor Swift effect). And during the 2023 NFL season, Travis Kelce has been feeling some heat.

With the Chiefs offense slumping—the unit is averaging 22.5 points per game, which feels unthinkably low—some have pointed a finger at the tight end. Some have wondered if he's been distracted, but most of the concerns have been about him slowing down due to wear and tear.

Rob Gronkowski, however, disagrees. And as a tight end who retired (for the first time) because the game had taken a toll on his body and mind, he's theoretically speaking from experience.

"Sometimes numbers will drop because it's a team game," Gronkowski told Forbes. "He doesn't really have that much help from the wide receiver position, but when you do see the ball in his hands, he looks like the same player he has been the last decade. The guy's moving, he's getting open, he's making plays, he's making defenders miss, he's shaking off defenders to get open at the top of the routes. So [I] don't really a see a drop-off at all."

But the praise didn't end there.

"He deserves all the honors that he's getting," Gronk added. "And I don't think his play has dropped off much at all, man. I truly don't."

Do Kelce's Stats Support Gronk?

If you're a long-time sports fan, you know that players who enter the media can be something of a mixed bag. Some can use their experience to provide genuine insight, while others trot out cliches and lean on what happened back in the day rather than actually connecting the dots for fans.

So let's take a closer look at the numbers.

First, let's consider the pure counting numbers, like receptions, receiving yards and the like. In those areas, Kelce is profiling quite well.

Through 12 games (he missed opening night due to injury), the tight end is averaging 8.58 targets and 6.67 receptions per contest. The former number is a slight drop from last season (8.94) but still sits higher than Kelce's 2021 average. On the reception front, No. 87 is actually averaging the second-highest number of catches per game across his entire career; only 2020's 7.00 was better.

In terms of receiving yards per game, Kelce is a little bit down but not unduly so. This season's number (74.7) is slightly lower than last year's (78.7) but above 2021's average (70.3).

With all of that being said, though, the advanced metrics do show some potential red flags.

During his time with the Chiefs, Kelce has displayed two superpowers: the ability to find a dead spot in the defense and the ability to make things happen after the catch, turning an ordinary play into a game-changer. The latter skill seems to be a bit lacking in 2023.

The tight end's yards before the catch per reception (6.5) and average depth of target (7.6) are higher than across the past two seasons, but his yards after the catch have fallen off a cliff. Kelce is averaging 4.7 yards after receptions this year, which is his lowest mark since 2019. Last year, for context, he averaged 5.9 yards after the catch per reception.

His broken tackles number is also notably different. No. 87 has only broken three tackles this year, or one every 26.7 catches. That's on pace for the worst numbers of his career; last year, for example, he broke 13 tackles, which shook out to one per every 8.5 catches.

And while that drop-off seems to paint a clear picture of a player who is declining, at least on the physical side of things, there is a complicating factor. As Gronkowski noted, Kelce hasn't had much help this season.

The Chiefs' biggest problem is the lack of a second pass-catcher, meaning that defenses can key in on No. 87 and force someone else to beat them. And while the tight end is still finding space and making plays, that could explain his lack of post-catch success. Even if the pass went underneath, deep threats keep the defense honest and create space. Now, Kelce is more likely to be surrounded when he catches the ball.

And the same can probably be said for touchdowns. The Chiefs have struggled in the red zone, where defenses can pack the limited amount of space left on the field. With less room to get open and no one capable of drawing the defense's attention, Kelce's scoring plays have dropped.

But, to Gronk's larger point, it's a bit dramatic to say that the Chiefs tight end is having a down year. Has he had down games? Of course, but sitting on 103 targets, 80 receptions and 896 yards isn't falling off a cliff.

As with most things, the answer is probably somewhere in between the two extremes. Is Kelce getting a bit older and past his pure athletic prime? Yes. Is he in a challenging situation as the focal point of the Chiefs offense? Yes. But is he still an essential player who can make the difference on any given snap? Also, yes.

At the risk of trotting out something of a sports cliche, no one is going to remember this regular season if he delivers in the postseason. That, for better or worse, is where legacies are made.

And Gronkowski is confident that his fellow tight end can deliver when the chips are down.

"There's going to be some big moments where he's going to shine for sure," he said. "That's when he always comes through."