Tropical Storm Idalia Update: Maps Forecast Rainfall, Wind, Peak Surge

Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by Monday night as it heads toward Florida's Gulf Coast and panhandle, where evacuations are underway, forecasters said.

As the storm strengthens near Cuba, hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the island nation Monday night, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Idalia is forecast to bring heavy rainfall that may cause flooding and landslides. Winds were roughly 70 mph, "just short" of hurricane force, according to an update by NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome around 6:30 p.m. ET.

"Idalia has been steadily strengthening during the day," Rhome said. "It's now near not quite hurricane strength, but now near hurricane strength, and likely will become a hurricane later tonight as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where conditions appear very favorable for additional intensification."

Idalia is expected to become a major Category 3 Hurricane before it makes landfall in Florida on Wednesday morning, bringing winds up to 120 miles per hour, according to the NHC.

Newsweek reached out via email Monday night to the NHC for comment and updates.

As Tropical Storm Idalia continues its approach toward Florida, forecasters warned that the storm could bring a "dangerous" storm surge, heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds to Florida's Gulf Coast and Big Bend as it approaches.

Idalia, the ninth named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2023, is expected to continue to move north "over the next day or so" before heading northeast over northern Florida, the southeastern Georgia coastline and South Carolina, Rhome said.

"In terms of intensity, now forecast to be a major hurricane, a major hurricane as it approaches the Florida Big Bend," Rhome warned in the evening update.

The hurricane center cautions that there is a danger of "life-threatening storm surge inundation" along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect and which includes Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region.

With rainfall forecast to pummel parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, forecasters cautioned that flooding is likely to occur.

Flash flooding, which may be "significant," is expected across parts of Florida's western coast, the panhandle and southern Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday, the NHC said, adding that the flooding could spread to portions of the eastern Carolinas by Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected within portions along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for "destructive winds" as the core of Idalia moves onshore, the NHC said in an update shared on social media.

"Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia," the center said.

On Saturday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 of the state's 67 counties, which includes most of the Gulf Coast and Tampa Bay area.

The governor said he issued his executive order "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources, and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families."

Several counties in the storm's projected path have also started evacuations, including Pasco County, where more than 500,000 people live.

The forecast models do not show the storm's center approaching southwest Florida, which was devastated by Hurricane Ian in September 2022. Ian pummeled parts of the state as a Category 4 hurricane, claiming more than 150 lives and causing roughly $112 billion in damage.