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Donald Trump's endorsement of Republican candidates in November's midterms is affecting their chances of winning as independent and undecided voters have a negative opinion of the former president in key states, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted by Trump's ex-National Security Adviser John Bolton's Super PAC, indicates that the former president's influence may have a "significant drag" on the election prospects of his endorsed candidates in four key battleground states: Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In three of the states, Trump's chosen candidates are behind their respective Democratic candidate, according to the poll. However, independent and undecided voters—who may be critical for each GOP candidate if they want to win in November—have unfavorable views of Trump, meaning it may be difficult for them to chip away at the deficit.
In Pennsylvania, the Trump-endorsed celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz trails 6 points behind his Democratic rival John Fetterman (38 percent to 44 percent) in the race for the Senate seat.
With undecided votes, nearly half (48 percent) said they have an unfavorable view of Trump, compared to 34 percent who have a favorable view of him.
In Ohio, author J.D. Vance is also behind his Democratic rival Tim Ryan by 38 percent to 44 percent. Trump is even more unpopular in Ohio with undecided voters, with 52 percent saying they view him unfavorably compared to 24 percent who have a positive view.
In North Carolina, Republican Ted Budd trails Democrat Cheri Beasley by 3 points, 43 percent to 40 percent. This time, undecided voters are split 33 percent on whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Trump.
Former NFL star Herschel Walker is the only Trump-endorsed candidate who is leading in the poll, beating Democrat Raphael Warnock 46 percent to 42 percent in the race for the Georgia Senate race. With undecided voters, Trump has a 31 percent favorable rating, with 43 percent having an unfavorable view.
As for independents, the poll found 48 percent do not have a positive opinion of the former president. The survey also found that only 12.5 percent of Republican primary voters in the four states identified as "Trump Republicans," compared to 73 percent who say they hold more moderate or conservative views.
"We can still win these races, but the candidates need to separate themselves from Trump. Whatever Trump's role in the nominating process, his role in the coming general elections can be fatal to GOP efforts to gain outright control of the Senate," Bolton said in a statement.
"Trump's fixation on himself and the 2020 election are poisonous to independent and undecided voters. Republican candidates who hope to win in November are risking political suicide if they stress their closeness to Trump, or allow their opponents to portray them as mini-Trumps."
The results also do not shine a positive light in terms of Trump's expected bid to run for president in 2024. According to the survey, 60.4 percent believe that the next Republican candidate should be "a fresh face," as they would be more likely to beat President Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup.
While Trump is still the favorite when voters are asked who they would support for President if the Republican primary was held today, he is only narrowly ahead of Ron DeSantis 33 to 31 percent, with rising speculation that the Florida governor is also plotting a run for the White House.
The survey from John Bolton's Super PAC was conducted between July 22-24 between 1200 likely voters, 300 of them in each state. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Newsweek reached out to Trump's office for comment.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more