Virginia's Unique Election Could Be 'Bad Omen' for Democrats

As the majority of Americans focus their attention on the next presidential election, voters and politicos in Virginia are gearing up for a unique Election Day that could provide clues for both parties on what to expect in 2024.

This fall, Virginia will hold its legislative elections and every seat is up for grabs. The commonwealth's General Assembly is currently split between Democrats and Republicans, and a shift either way could change the state's course on contentious issues, as well as reshape the 2024 campaign.

"What's unique in Virginia is that all the state legislative seats are open every four years in the odd years," Mark Bergman, a Democratic strategist who worked on former Virginia Governor Ralph Northam's winning 2017 campaign, told Newsweek. "So, it's kind of like the first look at what's going to happen in 2024."

Republicans hold a five-seat majority in the House of Delegates, while Democrats control the Senate by the same margin. The current split, combined with Virginia's history as a purple state, means the outcome of November's elections could come down to a few hundred votes.

"If Democrats across the country aren't engaged in Virginia, it's a bad omen going into 2024," Bergman said.

Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee via inquiry form for comment.

Over the last few decades, Virginia has moved from a deep red state to a blue-leaning state. Virginians have voted for a Democrat in the last four elections and President Joe Biden carried the state with more than 54 percent of the vote in 2020. Both of the state's senators are also Democrats.

But the political pendulum has continued to swing in the statehouse. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe in a political upset that was part of a GOP sweep across three statewide races. Youngkin, who has grown his national profile over the last three years by wading into the nation's culture wars—particularly in schools and public education—is now aiming for a follow-up Republican victory that will give him the legislature he needs to pass much of his conservative agenda.

The stakes of Virginia's 2023 elections are particularly high because of recent shake-ups of the state legislature.

"We are having a sort of unprecedented election because we had nonpartisan redistricting, where judges appointed folks to make the map, for the first time," Aimee Perron Seibert, a partner at Commonwealth Strategy Group, a full-service Virginia Government relations firm, told Newsweek. "Everybody's running in new seats."

"It's also a year where everything is up for grabs because we've had so many retirements," she said. "So many of our long-serving legislators, both on the Republican and Democratic side, have retired this year. We have had more retirements than we've ever had, which also means that there's a lot more open seats."

As many as 55 new legislators could be coming into the General Assembly after the 2023 election. With so much at stake this fall, some Virginia Democrats have become concerned that the national party is not paying enough attention to the importance of the legislative elections.

"I just don't see that same national energy, candidly, from the White House, on how important Virginia could be not just this year, but next as well," Senator Mark Warner told NBC News.

"I don't think there's the same national donor focus on Virginia as Governor Youngkin is pushing on the Republican side," Senator Tim Kaine agreed. "We may be battleground leaning blue, but we're not a blue state. And that means electoral votes have to be fought for every year."

Youngkin's political action committee, Spirit of Virginia, raised a record $5.9 million last quarter alone—the highest amount raised in a year by a Virginia governor on either side of the aisle, according to the PAC. Campaign data compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project shows that all Republican committees, campaigns and caucuses have raised nearly $13 million between April to June, while Democrats have brought in only $11 million during the same time frame.

"It's important for Democrats to understand that this is not a state that is solidly and reliably blue," Bergman said. "Governor Youngkin has raised an extraordinary amount of money and he'll be spending that to try to flip the legislature not only to advance his own presidential ambitions but to enact an extreme agenda that will hurt Virginia."

Youngkin has prioritized passing a 15-week abortion ban in Virginia, but Democrats in the state Senate defeated several bills restricting the procedure across the state in a series of key votes in January. Despite those setbacks, the governor has said legislators should continue to work on getting a ban signed into law.

Bergman said November's elections could have national implications because Virginia is currently one of the only states in the south without stringent restrictions on abortion access. If Republicans sweep the state elections in the fall, Youngkin will be able to pass his proposed 15-week ban, which could in turn cut off one of the limited paths that women in nearby states like Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia use to seek out the procedure.