Putin Risks Turning Russia Into China's 'Economic Colony': CIA Director

The director of the CIA, William Burns, said Tuesday that Vladimir Putin's military campaign in Ukraine was "a huge strategic failure," and that Moscow could soon become heavily reliant on Beijing to keep the Russian economy afloat.

"If you think about not only the losses in manpower and materiel; the humiliation in many respects of the Russian military, the exposure of its weaknesses; the long-term damage that sanctions and export controls, and the exodus of more than 1,000 Western firms from Russia, are going to have on Russia's own economic prospects," Burns said at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston.

"If you think that, early in the war, it was Putin's intention to try to fracture and weaken NATO, the truth is, NATO is as coherent as it's ever been. It's just added one new member in Finland; it's likely to add a second in Sweden," he said.

"And if you look at the reality that Russia is becoming more and more dependent on China, and in some respects runs the risk of becoming an economic colony of China over time, dependent for export of energy resources and raw materials in that direction as well, that all adds up, in my view, to a huge own goal for Putin's Russia right now," said Burns.

President Joe Biden sent Burns to Moscow in late 2021 in a last-ditch attempt to talk Putin out of going to war, but America's spy chief returned with the belief that Russia's president had already made up his mind. Burns said Putin was unlikely to learn from his misjudgements of the past 14 months.

"His bet is that he can grind down the Ukrainians and wear down the West. He thinks, and he wants us to think, that he can make time work for him," Burns said in his opening remarks. "He remains convinced that Ukraine matters more for him than it does for us. I think that Putin is as wrong in that bet as he was in his assumptions before his invasion."

As Western economies decoupled from Russia, the Kremlin turned to Beijing to backstop its losses. In 2022, two-way trade between the neighbors grew by nearly 35 percent year-on-year as China snapped up cheaper Russian energy, accelerating their commercial relationship toward the $200 billion mark they have set for 2024.

Last month, China's president, Xi Jinping, visited Moscow and signed multi-year agreements with Putin that granted Chinese firms disproportionate market access to sectors including finance, technology, agriculture and space. The deals were expected to increase Russia's use of China's yuan, too.

In return, long-time China watchers said, Putin extracted timely benefits that included high-profile political cover from his Chinese counterpart, who has avoided direct condemnation of Russia's invasion.

"I think the partnership between Xi Jinping's China and Vladimir Putin's Russia is a strong one today," said Burns. Just weeks before Russian troops crossed Ukraine's borders, Xi and Putin met in Beijing to declare a "no limits" partnership that has since put the Chinese leader under intense scrutiny as well.

Beijing has so far refrained from sending weapons to Moscow for use on the battlefield, proposed a quasi-peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, and distanced itself from Putin's nuclear saber-rattling.

"So it's an important partnership; I think both leaders are committed to it. But it's, so far at least, not a friendship without limits," Burns said.

China, he said, remained the CIA's "biggest long-term priority." He said earlier: "Xi Jinping's China is not content to only have a seat at the table, it wants to run the table."

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