Wagner 'Beheaded': Prigozhin's Lieutenants Killed in Jet Crash

The mysterious crash of a private plane in western Russia on Tuesday appears to have devasted the leadership of the Wagner Group mercenary organization. It could also prove to be the final chapter in its violent struggle for influence with the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry, analysts have told Newsweek

The aircraft that crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in Russia's Tver Oblast was registered to oligarch-turned-warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin and was on its way to St. Petersburg from Moscow. The cause of the crash is not yet clear, though a video from the scene showed the aircraft plummeting to the ground in flames after locals reportedly heard several explosions.

The passenger manifest named Prigozhin, Wagner military commander Dmitry Utkin, and Wagner security chief Valery Chekalov, along with two other Wagner commanders, two of Prigozhin's bodyguards, and three crew members. No one onboard is thought to have survived.

If accurate, the crash—which took place exactly two months after Wagner launched its abortive mutiny—has "beheaded" Wagner, according to the Russian pro-war Telegram channel, VChK-OGPU.

"If Prigozhin and Utkin are indeed dead in this air crash, it would mean that Wagner is currently leaderless," Alex Kokcharov, a Russia risk analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told Newsweek.

"It would likely be absorbed into the regular Russian armed forces under the command structures of the Russian Defense Ministry."

Newsweek has contacted the defense ministry by email to request comment.

'A Unique Figure'

Prigozhin was the face of Wagner, emerging as one of the prime players in the Kremlin's ongoing war on Ukraine and a nemesis of the regular Russian military hierarchy led by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

"Putin's chef"—a nickname given to Prigozhin because he made his fortune from government catering contracts—had garnered significant public support in his role leading Wagner, regularly posting videos from the front lines in Ukraine and repeatedly urging the Kremlin and defense ministry to intensify their war efforts.

His scathing denunciations of Shoigu and Gerasimov, in particular, won him plaudits among hardline militaristic nationalists, but made enemies within the powerful Russian establishment. The June coup—decried as "treason" by President Vladimir Putin—left Prigozhin a "dead man walking" in the eyes of many observers.

Wagner's subsequent exile to Belarus sidelined Prigozhin, giving Moscow time to defang and diffuse his organization. Wagner is now facing an uncertain future without its top men.

"It will not be able to exist as before because Prigozhin was a unique figure," Oleg Ignatov told Newsweek. He is the senior Russia analyst at the Crisis Group think tank, whose mission statement says its aim is to prevent war.

"He established a very unique structure and organization. After the mutiny, this organization lost a lot of its capabilities, at least in Russia, and its fate in Africa and in the Middle East was also under the question," Ignatov said.

Two of Prigozhin's top lieutenants appear to have died alongside him, deepening the crisis for Wagner. Utkin, a former special forces officer in the Russian army, was considered Wagner's top military figure.

"Prigozhin and Utkin were undeniably the faces of Wagner, and their assassinations will have dramatic impacts on Wagner's command structure and the Wagner brand," said an Institute for the Study of War bulletin published on Wednesday.

Utkin was a co-founder of the group, and his call sign "Wagner"—a reference to the famed composer whose work was appropriated by the Nazis and admired by Adolf Hitler—provided the name for the organization.

The investigative Bellingcat outlet said in 2020 that Utkin had "an obsessive fascination with the history of the Third Reich," and famous photos of the commander show him tattooed with a swastika, a Nazi eagle, and SS lightning bolts.

Utkin had a far less significant public profile than Prigozhin. This prompted suggestions that he was a convenient front for the group rather than a central figure, offering the Russian security services some level of deniability of Wagner operations.

Utkin only appeared in one Wagner video, filmed alongside Prigozhin in Belarus after the group's failed mutiny. "This is not the end, this is only the beginning of the greatest work in the world, which will continue very soon," Utkin said in the footage. "And welcome to hell," he added in English.

Chekalov was Wagner's security chief and is thought to have overseen transport and logistics for the group. He is said to have served as Prigozhin's public affairs attack dog, harassing and threatening journalists who wrote unflattering reports about Wagner and its leadership.

He was also reportedly responsible for overseeing Wagner's civilian business interests, including Prigozhin's catering contracts and Wagner's stakes in the Syrian oil industry. He was sanctioned by the U.S. in July for his role in facilitating weapons deliveries to Russia and was suspected to have done so on behalf of Prigozhin.

Chekalov was "a very important figure," Ignatov said. "The three main figures, they are dead."

A Hostile Takeover

Already weakened by their failed coup, Wagner's surviving commanders and fighters are in a tricky spot. Spread across Russia, Belarus, Syria, and Africa and stripped of most of their heavy weapons, the threats of a second march on Moscow emanating from pro-Wagner Telegram channels appear hollow.

Kokcharov said he was "quite skeptical" about the prospects of a second coup. "Who is who is going to be leading them? We have to remember these people are mercenaries. They're there for the money. It's not so much ideology, it's more about money. And if they can be coopted with the right amount of money by the defense ministry, I don't think that there is realistic reason for them to rebel."

Wagner's decapitation, Kokcharov added, opens the door to "less prominent commanders with less of a public image compared to Prigozhin and Utkin." Such individuals, he said, "would be easier for the Russian Defense Ministry to coopt into tighter ministry control over their operations."

"I would say that this clearly indicates increased direct government control, meaning defense ministry control, of Wagner units and Wagner operations."

The short-lived insurrection, Ignatov said, had already fundamentally changed the mercenary group. "Wagner, as it existed before the mutiny, doesn't exist anymore," he said, noting that the physical spread of the group's fighters might create a fragmented response.

"The most loyal to Prigozhin were forced to leave for Belarus. Of those people who stayed in Russia, I wouldn't expect any tough statements from them," Ignatov added. "They are now subordinate to the defense ministry. Maybe we'll see some statements from those who are in Belarus."

Prigozhin's apparent death will likely accelerate Moscow's efforts to absorb Wagner structures, Kokcharov said. "I think the Russian Defense Ministry will try to establish control over those units which are in countries in Africa as well," he said.

"Whether they will be successful, I don't know. But I think the ministry will basically tell those units that if they want to continue to have access to weapons and ammunition for operations in Africa, they will have to play along."

Wagner has long been a thorn in the side of the defense ministry, and ultimately also proved to be one for the Kremlin. Putin and his allies appear to be cleaning house, Ignatov inferred.

"I think they are not interested in the existence of Wagner as an independent organization which has its own history," Ignatov said. "This history is connected to Prigozhin. There is always a risk that he will be seen as a heroic figure, and it will be like a cult. And this cult would pose a threat to Putin."

The downing of Prigozhin's jet—the cause of which remains unclear and subject to numerous theories—sends a clear message. "Whoever did this, it was very demonstrative," Ignatov said. "I think everybody understood this signal."

Putin has used his war on Ukraine to tighten the authoritarian grip at home. The Wagner coup was the most serious threat to his authority for years, even if he was not the direct target of Prigozhin's rebellion.

"I think it would indicate reconsolidation of Putin's control over the political system, and it also sends signals to any political rivals who may have had any plans to challenge him from within the political system," Kokcharov said. "It probably means the strengthening of the political system within Russia, reduced civil war risk, and reduced government instability."

"We don't know how this air crash has happened," he added. "But it appears to be too much of a coincidence that the air crash has happened exactly two months since the start of the mutiny."

"Private jets fly over Russia in huge numbers every day. They don't fall out of the sky every day."