What's Fueling Ron DeSantis' Drop in Polls?

Recent headlines have been unequivocal about Ron DeSantis' presidential prospects: Things have been going sour quickly for Florida's governor.

Various news outlets reported Tuesday that the Republican's campaign had been roiled by a new round of layoffs—the second such round of reported cuts in a protracted retooling of his campaign's strategy. The New York Times reports that the campaign is hemorrhaging cash to the tune of a quarter-million dollars a day, while Federal Elections Commission data shows small dollar-donation figures well below those of weaker campaigns.

All the while, DeSantis' numbers in the polls have continued to plummet while Donald Trump, his top rival in the nomination race, has tightened his grip on GOP voters in a crowded candidate field.

What has caused DeSantis' drop in the polls? The answer, a deeper dive into the numbers show, lies with several key demographics in the GOP base, many of whom are directly linked to controversial policies DeSantis has either championed or has been accused of supporting.

A YouGov survey from earlier this week, for example, showed DeSantis underperforming his showing in the pollster's previous month's survey by 4 points while others—like Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy—saw a collective 9-point surge.

A similar downward trend was visible in other surveys by conservative pollster John McLaughlin, who documented a 6-point decline in DeSantis' nationwide performance since his firm's last poll in June.

The main contributors to DeSantis' decline, the YouGov poll's crosstabs show, come from his performance with several groups: women, Hispanics and older voters.

Between the survey ending June 27 and the one concluding July 25, DeSantis' approval rating with women fell from 16 percent to 13 percent. Meanwhile, Trump, once the choice of less than one-quarter of female GOP voters, now holds a commanding 55 percent among that demographic.

Among Hispanics, DeSantis fell from 20 percent support in June to just 16 percent. The 52 percent of Hispanics who said in June they were either unsure of whom to vote for or would vote for "someone" other than DeSantis or Trump have largely converted to Trump, according to YouGov's July survey.

And while DeSantis has seen marginal improvement among voters 65 and older—a sign that Trump's attacks on the governor's previous positions on Medicare and Social Security were possibly falling flat—his performance with those 45 to 64 has fallen by 4 points.

Newsweek reached out to the DeSantis campaign by email for comment.

The possible reasons for his decline, Florida-based political consultant Craig Agranoff told Newsweek, range from his policies as governor to the rhetoric he deploys on the campaign trail. But the more likely culprit, he said, might simply be voter fatigue with his message, which could hurt him not only with voters in his base but also with the independents he needs to defeat Joe Biden in 2024.

"The recent decline in Ron DeSantis' poll numbers is a sign that his appeal might be starting to wane, depending on who you listen to, at least," Agranoff said. "His attacks on Social Security and abortion are likely alienating some voters, but it's also possible that some campaign rhetoric is starting to wear thin. For example, many recent policies have been met with widespread opposition."

However, with months to go until voters head to the polls in Iowa—and a Republican debate scheduled for next month—any diagnosis of DeSantis' chances against Trump next spring could be premature.

"It will be interesting to see how DeSantis' poll numbers continue to trend in the coming months," Agranoff said. "It's too early to tell."