Will Hurricane Earl Hit U.S. East Coast? Path Laid For Atlantic Storm

The newest hurricane in the Atlantic basin formed Tuesday, and now Hurricane Earl has the U.S. east coast on alert. Earl, which became only the second Atlantic hurricane in the 2022 season, now sits east of The Bahamas and Florida's east coast—and southeast of Bermuda.

The questions now are simple:
1. Where will Earl go next?
2. How strong will Earl get?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) states on its website that Earl will increase in wind speed but pass southeast of Bermuda. Earl could possibly produce tropical-force winds across the Bermuda islands on Thursday.

The NHC also stated that life-threatening tides and rip currents could hit Bermuda by Thursday morning.

The National Hurricane Center also forecasts Earl to take a sharp right turn into the Atlantic by Thursday, pushing the storm away from the U.S. East Coast. The storm is expected to fizzle into the North Atlantic by Sunday evening, according to NHC models.

There have been no hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic basin to hit the U.S. this year, and the Atlantic has been way more inactive than the Eastern Pacific basin this season. On Tuesday night, Hurricane Kay was making its way northward to the Baja California peninsula of Mexico, potentially threatening the southern coast of California this weekend with high winds and soaking rains.

This doesn't mean the Atlantic is clear of storms. Two more systems off the west coast of Africa have already formed. The first has already begun organizing with disbanded storms starting to come together, and another is just leaving the African continent.

As storms move over warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, they usually become more powerful, and once they reach wind speeds of 74 mph, that's when it becomes a Category 1 hurricane. It becomes a Category 2 hurricane at 96 mph.

What can California expect?

The southernmost parts of California can expect high winds, heavy rains and strong storm surges even if Kay moves toward its northwestern trajectory. But with tropical systems, things could change and Kay could move inward, which would likely drench California.

"It is forecast to move to close to San Diego and then curve west," the National Weather Service in Los Angeles said, according to Fox Weather. "There is a possibility that this system will bring significant rainfall to portions of the area."

The NHC stated that swells from local surf regions could become life-threatening.

"Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions of the Baja California peninsula through Friday," NHC stated. "Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches are possible across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.

"Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northwestern portions of mainland Mexico. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides."