Fetterman Holds Lead Ahead of Lone Debate as Oz Continues to Gain Ground

A new poll shows Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz cutting into the lead of Democrat John Fetterman in a U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania during the past month.

The candidates, who have gone toe-to-toe in one of the nation's closest races, will debate Tuesday night in their first and only physical encounter exactly two weeks prior to the election.

A new CBS News/YouGov poll released Wednesday shows Fetterman, the state's lieutenant governor, leading 51 percent to 49 percent, with Oz having gained three percentage points since polling in September.

The biggest issues on voters' minds favor what Oz has stressed on the campaign trail.

Of the 1,084 statewide registered voters interviewed between October 21 and 24, the economy and inflation policies are the most important issues at 82 percent and 80 percent, respectively. They are followed by crime (67 percent), guns (57), abortion (56) and election issues (55).

A total of 78 percent of Republicans said they would "definitely" vote in the midterms, compared to 65 percent of Democrats. Independents may ultimately sway the election, as 67 percent of them said they would certainly fill out a ballot.

The shift in polling is due to Republicans solidifying their support for Oz, who garnered 87 percent of GOP support in September, but that number has jumped to 94 percent.

Simultaneously, voters who are "very enthusiastic" to vote for Oz decreased from 36 percent in September to 30 percent. Meanwhile, voters who are "somewhat enthusiastic" and "not very enthusiastic" increased 4 and 2 percent, respectively.

Fetterman's numbers in the enthusiasm department have dropped more precipitously.

Voters who were "very enthusiastic" to vote for the former mayor of Braddock have decreased from 63 percent in September to 47 percent. Voters who are "somewhat enthusiastic" and "not very enthusiastic" increased 11 and 6 percent, respectively.

Following increased attention to Fetterman's post-stroke health, voters have expressed more trepidation about his ability to be a full-time senator.

The poll shows that 55 percent of survey respondents said Fetterman is "healthy to serve," down four points since September. Of those who don't believe he is healthy enough, that number has increased from 41 percent to 45 percent.

Last week, Fetterman's physician issued a letter of good health for the Democrat to be able to serve in a full capacity should he be elected.

A recent Real Clear Politics analysis projected that Oz will win Pennsylvania by 1.9 percent. Even though Fetterman is ahead by 3.2 points, previous polling averages significantly undervalued GOP support by a mean of 5.2 points.

Ahead of the debate, 95 percent of CBS News/YouGov poll respondents said that the economy and inflation policies are the most important issues for the candidates to discuss. That was followed by policing and crime at 91 percent, and plans for lowering gas prices at 83 percent. Abortion came in as the fourth-most important issue at 82 percent.

The majority of voters don't care about debate topics related to Fetterman's health or Oz's state of residency. A total of 54 percent of voters don't believe Fetterman's health is an important topic for discussion, and 57 percent believe the same about Oz's residency.

Fetterman's campaign has repeatedly jabbed at Oz about his home state, indicated to be New Jersey, not actually Pennsylvania, according to records obtained by Pennsylvania-based news outlets. Oz attended medical school in the state and holds a medical license there.

A combined total of 64 percent of respondents said they are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to watch the debate.

Brittany Yanick, communications director for the Oz campaign, told Newsweek in a statement that "Dr. Oz is criss-crossing the commonwealth and meeting with Republicans, Democrats, and Independents who want to see a change from the failed policies of the past.

"We are going to win in November because Pennsylvanians can't afford a Bernie Sanders socialist like John Fetterman who wants to release 1/3 of PA inmates, decriminalize all drugs, and eliminate life sentences for murderers," Yanick added. "John Fetterman is the most pro-murderer candidate in the nation - the choice is clear."

Newsweek reached out to the Fetterman campaign for comment.