Putin Has 'Only One Real Red Line' That Can't Be Crossed—Exiled Oligarch

Russian President Vladimir Putin has only one "real red line" that can't be crossed, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a self-exiled Russian former oligarch, has told Newsweek.

Khodorkovsky, 60, a leading critic of Putin's regime, headed the energy company Yukos before he spent a decade in prison in Russia for what critics called politically motivated charges. He has now weighed in on whether the Russian leader would use nuclear weapons should Ukraine attempt to take back the annexed territory of Crimea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged last summer to reverse Russia's 2014 annexation of the Black Sea peninsula. Extensive fortifications have been spotted along Crimea's coast and the Russian Sevastopol naval base recently as Russia braces for a Ukrainian advance.

Many fear that an attempt by Ukraine to recapture Crimea would be a key boundary for Putin. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told Newsweek in May that losing control of occupied Crimea is a "red line" for the Russian president.

"There is only one real red line for Putin—a direct physical threat to himself," Khodorkovsky told Newsweek from London, where he now lives. "So any other situation which allows some room for maneuver for Putin himself is not really a red line, as far as he's concerned."

Khodorkovsky, who has been designated a "foreign agent" by the Kremlin, was one of the earliest supporters of democratic change in Russia, criticizing endemic corruption at a televised meeting with Putin in early 2003. Khodorkovsky was pardoned by the Russian president in 2013.

The former Russian oil executive said he believes that Putin has not used nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine so far, because "he realizes that using nuclear weapons will not give him an immediate victory, but it will definitely end in an immediate defeat of Putin's regime."

Khodorkovsky said he is unsure what could be the "trigger" for Putin for using nuclear weapons, "because it's very difficult to judge what's happening in Putin's head, the psychiatric state of Putin."

"It could be Crimea, it could be the retreat of the Russian armed forces on some other parts of the front line," he said.

Zelensky reiterated in April that Ukraine plans to liberate Crimea in a counteroffensive, stating that his country's success depends on the continued supply of arms by the West.

"As soon as Putin decides for himself that the use of nuclear weapons by him is not going to result in the immediate destruction, annihilation of the armed forces fighting in Ukraine—the Russian Armed Forces—he might decide to use it."

Khodorkovsky warned Putin's belief that the NATO military alliance would "immediately" become involved in the conflict should he use nuclear weapons "is being diluted bit by bit at the moment, with time."

"So I think it's very important to keep reminding him and putting it into his head that this is exactly what's going to follow. If not, I'm worried that he might decide to use nuclear weapons," said Khodorkovsky.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

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