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Two potentially crucial U.S. Senate races could be about to flip in favor of Republican candidates with just days until midterm elections that could decide the fate of President Joe Biden's agenda.
The races in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania seem to moving toward each state's GOP candidate as Democrats face potential losses in tough midterm races, though the outcome is far from certain.
Updated polling averages from RealClearPolitics (RCP) show Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz with an extremely slim lead over Lt. Governor John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, while GOP candidate Donald Bolduc is within one point of Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.
Pennsylvania
Fetterman and Oz are locked in a contentious race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat and the Democrat was leading in the polls for several weeks, but the Trump-backed Republican has been gaining on him.
RCP's polling average on November 4 showed Oz with 47 percent support to Fetterman's 46.9 percent - a very thin margin in a hotly contested race that could decide control of the Senate.
Fetterman led Oz in the same measure on November 2 with 46.6 percent to the Republican's 46.2 percent.
Over the summer, Fetterman enjoyed a much more substantial lead over Oz and RCP's polling average found he had 47.7 percent support on July 29, compared to just 39 percent for Oz. That was a gap of 8.7 percent and the Democrat's lead persisted for weeks before the Republican began slowly catching up in late August.
By September 7, RCP found Fetterman ahead by just 4.3 percent.
Analysis from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight rates the Pennsylvania Senate race a dead heat and gives Fetterman a 53 percent chance of winning, while Oz has a 47 percent chance.
The graph below shows polling averages in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will attend competing rallies in Pennsylvania on Saturday in support of Fetterman and Oz respectively, as well as the competing candidates for governor.
Newsweek has asked the Oz and Fetterman campaigns for comment on the state of the race.
New Hampshire
Senator Hassan is still leading her Republican challenger Donald Bolduc, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general, but he may be narrowing the gap in a race that's received relatively little attention.
RCP's polling average for November 4 showed the senator ahead with 47.8 percent support to Bolduc's 47 percent - a gap of less than one percent that could indicate trouble for the incumbent.
The New Hampshire race hasn't been as closely watched as highly competitive Senate contests in Pennsylvania and Georgia, but the chances of a last minute GOP win have drawn renewed attention to the campaigns.
Hassan previously enjoyed a wider lead over Bolduc and was ahead throughout the summer. RCP's polling average found her 49.8 percent on October 12, compared to 44 percent for the Republican - a gap of 5.8 percent.
Though Hassan is still ahead, her lead began to fall later that month, with RCP showing her just 3.6 percent ahead as of October 25.
Nonetheless, analysis from FiveThirtyEight rates Hassan as favored to win and gives her a 73 percent chance of victory. That compares to a 27 percent that Bolduc will pull off an upset win.
The graph below shows polling averages in the New Hampshire Senate race.
Newsweek has asked the Hassan and Bolduc campaigns for comment.
New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are two very different races but both may be crucial in determining control of the Senate, with FiveThirtyEight rating the GOP as slightly favored to win the chamber.
Previously, FiveThirtyEight rated the Senate race as a dead heat and before that, polls suggested Democrats were slightly favored to keep control.
RCP places both the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania races in the toss-up category but voters' wishes will only become clear once votes are counted.
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About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more