Will the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant Strike Slow Ukraine's Counteroffensive?

Video of the sky lit up in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast following Russian strikes on a facility storing missile fuel and components comes amid further signs of an imminent Ukrainian offensive.

Dramatic footage posted on social media show explosions at the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant. It had been targeted in missile strikes causing the detonation of Soviet-era solid rocket fuel.

Ukrainian sources had reported Ukraine's air defense shot down 15 out of the 18 missiles launched by Russian Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers on Monday night. The Russian defense ministry said the strikes had successfully disrupted the production of military resources.

Meanwhile, some Russian sources had initially said the strike had targeted a key rail junction in the city and destroyed anti-aircraft systems for Kyiv's upcoming offensive.

However, the strike was geolocated to the plant, which open-source intelligence expert Oliver Alexander tweeted had been "storing old SS-24 boosters [and] was hit in the Russian strike."

This refers to Soviet-era intercontinental ballistic missiles stored there. These were supposed to be dismantled as part of the U.S.-led Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program.

"While not good, this was the better case scenario," Alexander added.

Pavlohrad is strategically located in an area through which that counteroffensive drive toward Crimea could take place, according to defense publication The Drive. The chemical plant helps test Alder-M and Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles. Neptunes were used to sink the Russian Navy's Moskva Black Sea flagship last year.

The attack emphasizes "the importance of ammunition storage sites and defence industrial sites," said Philip Ingram, a former British intelligence officer. He told Newsweek that the strikes may affect Ukrainian preparations for its counteroffensive but are unlikely to have a significant impact.

"Key to any successful preparations is ensuring there is no one point of failure and there is redundancy in every system," Ingram said. "It does, however, indicate that Russian targeting may be getting better, but one success for the Russians after many months of trying isn't enough to suggest a significant improvement."

Serhiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, said that the attacks had left 34 people injured. The strikes damaged 25 houses, six schools and five shops, as well as buildings in surrounding areas.

While Moscow touted the strikes as effective, Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said that the fact that Russia had used Tu-95 and Tu-160s with far fewer missiles than their maximum load suggested that Moscow struggled with producing enough such munitions.

It was the second Russian missile strike on Ukraine in the past several days. More than 20 civilians, including at least four children, were killed Friday, with the heaviest toll in the central city of Uman.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that the Russian defense ministry is now actively describing its strike campaigns probably because it wants to display a "proactive approach to growing concerns in the Russian information space regarding a Ukrainian counteroffensive."