May Could Be Ukraine's Pivotal Month in the War

The waiting is the hardest part for some Russian officials and military bloggers who are feeling a "pervasive anxiety" over Ukraine's imminent counteroffensive.

That Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessment came amid theories Kyiv's forces are waiting for warmer weather to harden the ground and resolve to spoil May celebrations of military glories past, in which Vladimir Putin frames his full-scale invasion.

The cancellation of the Immortal Regiment march commemorating the Soviet role in defeating Nazi Germany and the nixing of other Victory Day events on May 9 in the Russian oblasts of Kursk and Belgorod over security fears, have added to the anticipation over what happens next.

"The next 30 to 60 days of the campaign will be critical," said retired U.S. Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command, now executive director of the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida.

"Ukraine has largely absorbed and deflected the Russian offensive this spring," he told Newsweek. "The weather is turning for the better, and Ukraine is integrating new capabilities. They have an opportunity, but the risks still remain high."

The head of Russia's private Wagner militia, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on his Telegram channel that Ukraine had been sending well-prepared units to the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, fiercely fought over for months. When it gets warmer, expect Ukrainian forces to make their move, he added.

"May looks to be pretty important," said Nick Reynolds, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.

"Better weather is more conducive to movement, and so the character of operations will change," he told Newsweek. "This is particularly important in the Donbas, where the poor quality of the road network and transport exacerbates the challenges of poor weather and mud for military forces."

Western support

At a meeting of Kyiv's allies last week in Ramstein, Germany, there were further pledges of military support for Ukraine. Over the last few weeks, vehicles including Leopard 2 and Challenger tanks have come from Germany and the U.K. Deliveries to Kyiv also included German Marder, as well as American Stryker infantry fighting vehicles, and Cougar infantry mobility vehicles.

"Kyiv's forces will have some of their new equipment, but as the recent leaks highlighted, there remain serious shortfalls that Ukraine's international partners have either been unable or unwilling to rectify, particularly in the realm of air defense," said Reynolds.

Pentagon documents leaked earlier in April revealed concern among U.S. officials at Ukraine's air defense network being weakened by Russian drone and missile barrages and expressed the need for a huge transfer of munitions.

"There remain serious equipment deficits that have been long-identified but were left unaddressed," added Reynolds.

Ukraine launched successful counteroffensives in 2022 at the end of the Battle of Kyiv, around Chernihiv and Sumy, towards Izyum and at Kherson. Much is being made of the next such move in which Ukraine will be expected to reclaim territory, demonstrate it can successfully use Western military assistance and show the war is not a stalemate.

"The stakes could not be higher," said Pushan Dutt, Professor of Economics at the business school, INSEAD, "The Ukrainians need a major victory to convince their allies to keep their support going. The clock is ticking."

"The world may soon move on or lose patience. So time is the biggest enemy of Ukraine. In contrast, Russia is confident that they can wait this out," Dutt added.

This week, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russia had switched to defensive positions in all its areas of combat apart from Bakhmut, where there have been huge casualties for Moscow's forces and high losses for Ukraine as well.

If the Russian military knows that something is coming, Putin is also seeking to shore up troop numbers.

However, efforts to enlist up to 400,000 more soldiers have caused alarm among government officials concerned about a critical labor shortage in Russia, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents obtained by The Washington Post.

This week, a survey by Russia's Central Bank of 14,000 companies found worker shortages, across several sectors, with the biggest shortfall in manufacturing and transport.

"The demand for labor was largely impacted by the increase in the state defense order," Olga Bychkova, economist at Moody's Analytics, told Newsweek.

Putin's push to recruit more troops will come at the risk of further destabilizing the Russian economy under pressure from sanctions, and risks alienating the Russian public, according to The Post.

This could play into Ukraine's hands if gains were made on the battlefield at a time of unhappiness in Russia at mobilization and worsening living standards.

However, Reynolds said that even if the next month were crucial, "the outcome of the war is nowhere near decided and will not be for months or even years."

He believes that the uncertainty around continued international backing for Ukraine had been detrimental to sound operational planning and "created a political imperative to take unwise military risks," although there have been longer-term military support plans in recent months.

"If international partners are serious about wanting Ukraine to win, then they need to look beyond the counteroffensive," he said.

This week, Ukraine's deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said her country's armed forces are already conducting various "actions" and that people should not expect a formal announcement about a counteroffensive, in a nod to their complex nature.

The Pentagon leak is also likely to push Kyiv to safeguard details about its imminent plans to fight Russian aggression, which could shape the rest of the war.

"Failure in the upcoming offensive could lead to war fatigue across the globe," said Mark Temnycky, a Ukrainian-American who is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. "Ukraine needs to get this right."