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Virginia Republicans are defying former President Donald Trump's messaging, and early signs show it could be working to their advantage.
Governor Glenn Youngkin is leading the GOP charge on early and mail-in voting, taking a page out of the Democrats' playbook and urging voters to cast their ballots before the November 7 election.
The strategy, which abandons Trump's claims about early and absentee voting, could be helping state Republicans make inroads into the pool of votes that typically benefit Democrats before Election Day.
As of Monday, over 352,000 Virginians have already voted, and Democrats are representing a smaller share of those votes than they did last year. While they still have the early voting advantage, it has fallen to 60 percent from the 63 percent Democrats saw last year, data from analytics firm L2 shows.
Republicans have made the biggest gains in close races, like House District 53 and House District 65, where Republicans have nearly 43 percent and 39 percent of the early vote respectively. In House District 21, where one of the closest races are taking place, Republicans have more than 43 percent of the early vote. Statewide, the GOP advantage is only 35 percent.
Voters have until November 4 to cast an early vote. This year is the first time that a full General Assembly election in Virginia has had a 45-day early voting period and no-excuse absentee mail ballot rule since new voting laws were passed in 2021. The state's unique odd-year election is largely expected to act as a bellwether for the 2024 election.
"Democrats put these rules in place while in control of Virginia's government and have used these rules to their advantage by vastly outpacing Republicans in early and absentee voting," Youngkin wrote in an August 13 op-ed published by USA Today. "We can either continue complaining, or we can recognize reality, beat the left at their own game and win elections."
His PAC, Spirit of Virginia, rolled out the "Secure Your Vote Virginia" campaign earlier this year, which encourages people to vote early. Youngkin has been touring the state to promote the campaign and made pleas for Republicans to "stop sitting on the sidelines" and giving "thousands of votes" to Democrats.
The Republican push comes in opposition to Trump's election fraud claims, which had deeply resonated among GOP voters across the country. The former president repeatedly blasted early and absentee voting during the 2020 election and in his final days in office, blaming those ballots for "rigging" the election.
Trump has admitted that Republicans have "no choice" but to accept early voting, but his continued attacks on the credibility of the American election system also means that Youngkin's campaign could face a headwind from Trump supporters who remain skeptical about voting before Election Day.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign via email for comment.
Virginia Republicans also face a distinctive hurdle because candidates in the state have to fuel voter turnout in an off-year election. But Youngkin's team believes that embracing early voters could combat that challenge. Senior adviser Dave Rexrode told Axios that Republicans are successfully driving turnout to win "Republicans who typically just vote in presidential or gubernatorial elections."
"Republicans are much better off with early voting than not, and we're seeing, particularly in some of the early voting statistics, that Republicans are coming close to catching up to Democrats on early voting," Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, told the Prince Williams Times.
Update 10/25/23, 11:28 a.m. ET This story was updated to include information about House District 21 and 53.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more